| 摘要: | Traditional financial theory assumes that financial market is efficient and participants are rational, overlooking the emotional and psychological bias which are not rational behavior, in the decision-making process, leading to the great differences between actual deciding conducts and the expectations of traditional financial theory. The overconfidence bias has a great influence and is the most common psychological bias for market participants and company managers. Thus, the present study reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the overconfidence, including the definition, determinants, measures of overconfidence, and the impacts of overconfidence for investors and managers. The definition of overconfidence can be described from the behavior and phenomenon performed.
The determinants of overconfidence include the uncertainty of situation, experience and expertise, behavioral motivation, the weighted probability difference, cognitive dissonance, speed and clarity of feedback as well as the cost of failure. The measure of overconfidence is described from viewpoints of investors and managers. The study reviews important measures, and also addresses the relevant empirical studies about the overconfidence measures.
The impact of investor overconfidence is mainly on the stock trading volume and transaction frequency, causing the stock irrational reaction (overreaction or underreaction) and reducing market efficiency. The influences of managerial overconfidence are reviewed from the aspects of company's investment decisions, financing decisions, dividend policy (including dividend payments and share repurchase decisions), the quality of corporate governance and cash holding decisions. This study expects that through the review of overconfidence-related literature, the research can provide references for investors, company managers and the regulatory agency and enhance the rationality and optimization for financial decision-making and supervisions. |
