政府當局在決定擴大公共支出時，通常是基於主觀判斷，而很少運用科學方法作客觀之分析，以致決策偏離合理範圍。本研究旨在應用客觀之方法，研析政府公共支出決策制定時所考量因素之群體共識結構，藉由模糊多層級分析程序法尋求不同背景之專家共識，作為客觀及合理之公共資源配置策略。模糊多層級程序分析法，係將模糊理論與多層級程序分析法合併考量。針對層級間專家可能會產生誤判，其權數之計算運用模糊綜合評判方法，以解決多層層級間產生之模糊狀況。經以我國中央政府為例，發現政府公共支出規模，受政治、外在環境變遷、意外事故發生等導致特定類型政事別支出變動，以及（或）財源不同等因素影響，決策模式會因指標不同而在比較基準上有差異。
In view of continuing expansion in fiscal deficits in Taiwan government, this study explores the determinants affecting the expansion of public expenditures, using the Fuzzy Multilayered Analytic Hierarchy Process (FMAHP) method with Group Decision-making procedures to seek the consensus of experts in different background, as an objective and reasonable public resource disposition strategy. The FMAHP is a method that combines fuzzy theory and multi-layer hierarchy 1 process. Since experts may make interference in their judgment, their weights in different layers are calculated with the aggregate judgment method in fuzzy theory for solving the multilayered fuzzy condition. After analyzing the public expenditures of Taiwan’s central government, we find that the expansion in public expenditures, along with its budget and implementation, is affected by the political changes, extraneous environment changes, catastrophes, and financial sources.
