Using Taiwan' National Health Insurance research data base in 1996,2000,and 2005,this study applies "Direct Standardization Method" to examine the impact of change in population structure on the increase in medical expenditures. In the meantime, such an influence is also extended to future situation in Taiwan.
The analytical results show that aging of population has played an important role in the increase of medical expenditures in Taiwan and will have much more influence in the future, especially in the stage of negative population growth. On the other hand, the sex ratio of elderly in Taiwan is still abnormal (more males than females) and will be becoming normal in 2015 (more females than males).Also, the average medical expenditures for the elderly 65 and older is higher for males than females at the current situation. However, it is estimated that females' average medical expenditures will exceed males' in 2025. Therefore, change in sex structure in the future will also have an impact on the increase in medical expenditures.
Due to negative population growth in Taiwan and the continuos rising of medical expenditures in the future,Bureau of Taiwan National Health Insurance should prepare itself for Health Insurance resources and make the most efficient use of the medical expenditures. Also,the Bureau should emphasize both the knowledge of health and strengthen health promotion." So,lessening curing population will make it possible to avoid lack of Health Insurance finances.
