| Abstract: | Taiwan’s net reproduction rate (NRR) fell to 1.0 in 1983 and to 0.6 in 2003. In1964 when the island-wide family planning program was promoted, the total ertility rate (TFR)was 5.10 and the net reproduction rate was 2.27.
The sustained fertility decline, however, began earlier. In 1955 the total fertility was as high as 6.55 and the net reproduction rate was 2.82. Taiwan has completed the fertility aspect of the demographic transition in the 20 years after the initiation of an intensive family planning program. Since 1984, the NRR in Taiwan has been
below-replacement fertility.
This article compares the fertility experience of Taiwanese in twenty years since the total fertility rate reached 2.1 with that before fertility reached replacement levels. During the earlier period,two-thirds of the fertility decline resulted from falling marital fertility
and one-third from her age at marriage. The changing age distribution retarded this decline. Between 1983-1997,the further decline to 1.7-1.8 has been entirely the result of the trend toward later marriage. Older age distributions now facilitate the decline. Births postponed
by those marrying later make the conventional TFR misleading.
Computation based on parity-progression ratios raise TFRs from 1.7 to 2.0, a number less alarming to policymakers.
Contraceptive practice is at saturation levels in all major population strata. The“KAP-GAP” has disappeared.What would have happened without Taiwan’s effective family planning program is impossible to determine,
but clearly, contraceptive services supplied by the program
were the major proximate cause of Taiwan’s fertility
decline.
During 1998-2003, however, the TFR based on the parity-
progression ratio would be under 2.0 especially for year
after 2001. Another evidence is from a cumulative fertility
or cohort fertility derived from Taiwan’s birthregistration
for women who are almost getting through their reproductive
ages. The cohort total fertility for women who were born
in 1961 was 1.99 when they reached 40 years old in
2001.
For women who were born in 1966, the cohort total fertility
was 1.67 when they were 35 years old in 2001. It sounds
likely for women who were born after 1961 that their
cohort total fertility would be smaller than that of women
born before 1961.
A recently announced population policy (1992) for Taiwan
is translated as: Since 1984, the net reproduction
rate has been below the replacement level. If the downward
trend continues, the population of the Taiwan area
will reach the stage of “zeropopulation growth” soon
and turn into a “negative growth” quickly. This means
adecrease in the young population and an increase in the
aging population which will lead to different sorts
of social problems, such as the lack of labor force
and a high dependency ratio. Therefore, the future
policy
should promote a reasonable growth of the population.
The new policy aims to keep the guideline of “two
children
family,” butadvocatesincreasing the marriage rate
and the birth rate of married women to maintain the net
reproduction rate at the replacement level.
An
important measure for pushing up the NRR is to raise
the marriage rate though strengthening
educational
campaigns for the youth. So far, such an effort is not
successful. Accordingly, our government is actively
involved in proposing a new pronatalist population
policy.
It is suggested to develop a child and family policy
to encourage fertility. |
