The Study on Power Loading Prediction Model to Forecast Electricity Demand for Community Electricity Contract Capacity by Utilizing Grey Theory

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題名:	The Study on Power Loading Prediction Model to Forecast Electricity Demand for Community Electricity Contract Capacity by Utilizing Grey Theory
作者:	Yang, Cheng-Hsun
貢獻者:	Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering Hsing-Chung Chen
關鍵詞:	Power Demand;Rolling Forecast Method;Moving Average Method;Gray Prediction;Contract Capacity
日期:	2012
上傳時間:	2012-11-18 09:00:42 (UTC+0)
出版者:	Asia University
摘要:	The purpose of this study is to study contract capacity of power demand by utilizing gray prediction theory. Historical data for yearly power demand for a high-voltage user in the Hsinchu area is collected and analyzed. Optimal annual contract capacities from 2005 to 2011 are derived. Furthermore, prediction, analysis and comparison of the derived data are carried out for four different methods, namely the rolling forecast method, moving average method, MegaStat method and gray prediction method. The results show that, under certain conditions with limited data, the power demand prediction utilizing gray prediction is most accurate, compared to the other three methods. To compare actual data and prediction results, average absolute deviation percentage is used as the prediction accuracy criterion. It is found that the gray prediction method performs well in Taiwan power demand prediction. Therefore, the contract capacity prediction for the year of 2012 utilizing gray prediction method can be used as a reference for future electricity budget planning.
顯示於類別:	[資訊工程學系] 博碩士論文

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