The suitability of several theoretical distributions to predict the observed distribution of aflatoxin test results in seed-fruit Chinese medicines was investigated. To estimate the statistical distribution model of aflatoxins contaminated in seed-fruit Chinese medicines by using Monte-Carlo simulation. Once the performance of aflatoxin distribution plans can be predicted, we can be designed to reduce the risks of aflatoxins contaminated in seed-fruit Chinese medicines.The uncertainty and distribution information is used to develop a model that can evaluate the performance (risk of misclassifying lots) of aflatoxin distribution plan designs for Chinese medicines.The suitability of several theoretical distributions to predict the observed distribution of aflatoxin test results in seed-fruit Chinese medicines was investigated. Eight positively skewed theoretical distributions were each fitted to aflatoxins. The invgauss distribution was selected to model aflatoxin test results for seed-fruit Chinese medicines. Observed acceptance probabilities were compared to operating characteristic curves predicted from the invgauss distribution, and all 8 observed acceptance probabilities were found to lie within a 90% confidence band. The result showed invgauss 92.2%、pearson 86.1%、expon 99.4%、extvalue 78.5%、normal 70.1%、logistic 67.4%、triang 82.7%、uniform 58.3% in aflatoxins and gamma 97.2%、invgauss 92.2%、pearson5 85.6%、expon 99.5%、extvalue 78.2%、normal 69.8%、logisitic 67.1%、triangle 82.7%、unifrom 58.3% in aflatoxin B1. As a result, modeling the distribution and probability of aflatoxins occurrence using data working. The parameters of invgauss distribution (aflatoxins) and gamma distribution (aflatoxin B1)were used to calculate the risk assessment of aflatoxin-contaminated in seed-fruit Chinese medicines.
