ASIA unversity:Item 310904400/116936
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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://asiair.asia.edu.tw/ir/handle/310904400/116936


    Title: 基於Holt-Winters方法的蒙古Covid-19期間旅遊需求預測
    Other Titles: THE FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND DURING COVID-19 IN MONGOLIA BASED ON HOLT-WINTERS METHODS.
    Authors: MUNKHBAYAR, DAGVAOCHIR
    MUNKHBAYAR, DAGVAOCHIR
    Contributors: 徐世輝
    SHEU, SHEY-HUEI
    經營管理學系
    Keywords: 預測;COVID-19;旅遊業;Holt-Winters 加法 ETS;Holt-Winters 乘法 ETS
    Forecasting;COVID-19;Travel industry;Holt-Winters Additive ETS;Holt- Winters Multiplicative ETS
    Date: 2023
    Issue Date: 2023-11-22 01:35:11 (UTC+0)
    Abstract: 目的-本研究旨在預測 COVID-19 期間蒙古的旅遊業復甦，並為旅遊業和相關業務做出貢獻。那裡有一些詳細目標如下：(1) 確定蒙古和其他國家的旅遊業現狀; (2) 確定蒙古和其他國家 COVID-19 的現狀; (3) 調查預測旅遊需求的方法。方法 – 本研究將使用從蒙古統計信息服務處 (MSIS, 2021) 收集的 2015 年第一季度至 2021 年第一季度到蒙古的季度外國旅遊遊客人數. 數據分析將使用 EViews 11 SV(x64) 執行。
    Purpose- This study aims to forecast tourism recovery in Mongolia during the COVID-19pandemic period and contribute to the tourism industry and related businesses. There aresome detailed objectives listed as following: 1 Identify the current situation of the tourismindustry of Mongolia and other countries, 2 Identify the current situation of the COVID-19pandemic in Mongolia and other countries, 3 Investigate methods for forecasting tourism demand.Methodology – This study will use data on the quarterly foreign tourism visitor arrivals toMongolia from 1st quarter of 2015 to 1st quarter of 2021 are collected from the Mongolianstatistical information service (MSIS, 2021), and data on the independent variables such asconsumer price index (CPI), GDP index. Also, this study will forecast tourism demand duringCovid-19 based on the Holt-Winters exponential model. Data analysis will perform withEViews 11 SV(x64).
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Business Administration] Theses & dissertations

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