| Abstract: | Background: The number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia had reached 1.5 million in early January 2021. The disease spread, government response, and community compliance with social distancing differ among countries. These factors could have an impact on the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Although many studies conclude that the government response and community mobility would much affect the spread of COVID-19, quantitative evidence is still limited. Objective: This study aimed to examine the influence of the government response and community mobility on the COVID-19 pandemic quantitatively in Southeast Asia.Method: The study extracted data from The Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, and Our World in Data between March 1 and December 31, 2020, regard to Southeast Asia countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The government response index, community mobility percentages compare to baseline, and COVID-19 cases were presented as a time-series graph. Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze the effect of variables bi-monthly in each country.Result: The government response, especially the containment index, was generally followed by community mobility. The higher the containment index, the lower the community mobility, and vice versa. There was a suppression effect of government response to community mobility in all studied countries in Southeast Asia with a path coefficient range from -0.785 to -0.976 and all p-value <0.001 in March-April and from -0.670 to -0.932 and all p-value <0.000 in May-June (except for Cambodia). There was a suppression effect of community mobility to the COVID-19 case with a path coefficient range from -0.058 to -0.937 in March-April and from -0.059 to -0.640 in September-October.Conclusion: The trends of changes of the effect based on bimonthly analysis from the government's response, community mobility, and COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia countries were varied. However, there were some similarities, the government response could suppress community mobility in March-April and May-June, and community mobility could suppress COVID-19 cases in March-April and September-October.
Background: The number of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia had reached 1.5 million in early January 2021. The disease spread, government response, and community compliance with social distancing differ among countries. These factors could have an impact on the COVID-19 outbreak in each country. Although many studies conclude that the government response and community mobility would much affect the spread of COVID-19, quantitative evidence is still limited. Objective: This study aimed to examine the influence of the government response and community mobility on the COVID-19 pandemic quantitatively in Southeast Asia.Method: The study extracted data from The Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, and Our World in Data between March 1 and December 31, 2020, regard to Southeast Asia countries, including Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The government response index, community mobility percentages compare to baseline, and COVID-19 cases were presented as a time-series graph. Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze the effect of variables bi-monthly in each country.Result: The government response, especially the containment index, was generally followed by community mobility. The higher the containment index, the lower the community mobility, and vice versa. There was a suppression effect of government response to community mobility in all studied countries in Southeast Asia with a path coefficient range from -0.785 to -0.976 and all p-value <0.001 in March-April and from -0.670 to -0.932 and all p-value <0.000 in May-June (except for Cambodia). There was a suppression effect of community mobility to the COVID-19 case with a path coefficient range from -0.058 to -0.937 in March-April and from -0.059 to -0.640 in September-October.Conclusion: The trends of changes of the effect based on bimonthly analysis from the government's response, community mobility, and COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia countries were varied. However, there were some similarities, the government response could suppress community mobility in March-April and May-June, and community mobility could suppress COVID-19 cases in March-April and September-October. |
