台灣失業率與消費者物價指數年增率 關聯性之探討-菲利浦曲線之應用

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题名:	台灣失業率與消費者物價指數年增率關聯性之探討-菲利浦曲線之應用 The Correlation between Taiwan’s Unemployment Rate and the Annual Growth Rate of Consumer Price Index – The application of the Philip curve
作者:	林晉緯 LIN, JIN-WEI
贡献者:	財務金融學系
关键词:	失業率;消費者物價指數;菲利浦曲線;迴歸模型;量化寬鬆 unemployment rate;CPI;the Phillips curve;regression model;quantitative easing
日期:	2022-07-06
上传时间:	2022-10-28 08:43:43 (UTC+0)
出版者:	亞洲大學
摘要:	2019年年底，全球傳出新型冠狀病毒肺炎首例個案，隨後演變成全球公共衛生問題的風暴，也因此造成了許多國家的經濟皆受到拖累，各國政府為了解救經濟開始實施一系列的貨幣寬鬆計畫。國內更是在2021年本是人力需求旺盛的夏季，突然間失業率大幅飆升1.16%，但是整體物價卻沒有感到明顯的回落，更出現反增的情況，似乎浮現出現今資本市場爛於使用貨幣量化寬鬆所致的異常現象，使得這帖救命藥本該帶來的效益愈趨弱化，甚至將可能出現副作用的可能。本研究，探討我國失業率與消費者物價指數年增率的關聯性，是否與菲利浦曲線依舊存在著吻合關係。研究中，總共彙集了13年約莫一個經濟週期的數據，內涵我國行政院主計處所公告的失業率與消費者物價指數年增率，以作為分析依據進而探討與菲利浦曲線吻合關係。 Since the first case was reported at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a global public health emergency which dragged down the economies of many countries. National governments have implemented a series of monetary easing policies to bail out their economies. In Taiwan, the unemployment rate suddenly soared by 1.16% in the summer of 2021, while the demand for manpower should have been high. However, the overall price rose rather than fell significantly, which seemed to be the abnormal phenomenon caused by the quantitative easing frequently used in today’s capital market. As a result, this life-saving drug that should have brought benefits gradually becomes ineffective and may even have side effects. This study explores whether the correlation between Taiwan’s unemployment rate and the annual growth rate of the consumer price index is still consistent with the Philip curve. In this study, 13 years (approximately a business cycle) of data are collected, including the unemployment rate and the annual growth rate of the consumer price index announced by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, as the analysis basis to explore their consistent relationships with Philip curve.
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