我國入境觀光需求預測之研究─時間數列方法之應用

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题名:	我國入境觀光需求預測之研究─時間數列方法之應用 A Study on Forecasting Demand for Inbound Tourism in Taiwan –Application of Time Series Method
作者:	張吟如 Chang, Yin-Ju
贡献者:	經營管理學系
关键词:	入境觀光;時間數列;需求預測;結構性時間數列;ARIMA模型 Inbound Tourism;Time Series;Demand Forecast;Structural Time Series;ARIMA
日期:	2019
上传时间:	2019-05-23 03:51:58 (UTC+0)
出版者:	亞洲大學
摘要:	本研究採用時間數列方法中的結構性時間數列(Structure Time Series, STM）與ARIMA模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, ARIMA model)方法針對民國70年至民國107年第二季各國入境台灣觀光旅客人數資料進行分析與未來需求預測模式推估。依據本研究之預測模式，顯示香港地區於民國107年第四季觀光人數略微下降，爾後持續穩定成長；日本地區穩定成長，每年第四季為人數最多；韓國地區呈現每年第一季為較多人，每年第三季為人數最少；馬來西亞與新加坡地區每季人數波動較大；美國地區與過去觀光人數相比成長幅度不大。整體而言，民國 107 年第三季至民國110年第四季各地區入境台灣觀光人數預測趨勢微幅成長現象，以每年第四季為最多，入境觀光仍有空間與規劃能使成長幅度更顯著。本研究最後針對入境觀光相關政府部門觀光政策提出建議。 This study uses the Structural Time Series (STM) and ARIMA model (ARIMA model) methods in the time series method to target the number of tourists entering Taiwan from the Republic of China from the 70th year to the second quarter of the Republic of China. Data analysis and future demand forecasting model estimation. According to the forecasting model of this study, it shows that the number of tourists in Hong Kong in the fourth quarter of the Republic of China decreased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2007, and continued to grow steadily. The Japanese region grew steadily, with the largest number in the fourth quarter of each year. The Korean region showed more in the first quarter of each year. People are the least in the third quarter of each year; the number of people in Malaysia and Singapore is highly volatile each quarter; the United States has not grown much compared to the number of tourists in the past. Overall, the forecast trend of the number of people entering Taiwan in the third quarter of the Republic of China from the third quarter of the Republic of China to the fourth quarter of the Republic of China in the fourth quarter of the Republic of China has grown slightly in the fourth quarter of each year. There is still room for planning and inbound tourism. Significant. The study concludes with recommendations for tourism policies related to inbound tourism.
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