政府為振興台灣經濟，於2009年發行消費券，本研究探討2009年消費券政策施行對特定產業績效之影響，包括紡織業、貿易百貨及觀光產業等三種傳統產業與電子通路業，以股票年報酬率、Tobin’s Q及總資產報酬率做為績效指標，以瞭解消費券政策之實施對此等產業影響之情形，包括分析2009年績效比發放前 (取2006與2007績效平均) 以及比其他對照組產業改善情形，俾利將來政府振興經濟政策擬定之參考。
本研究使用單變量差異比較及複迴歸模型行分析消費券實施後相對於實施前之績效變化，獲得以下結論：
1. 選定的三種傳統產業以產業調整後Tobin's Q之績效來看，在2009年的績效表現除了顯著高於2006及2007年的平均績效之外，又比其他對照組產業2009年績效變動程度顯著為高。
2. 電子通路業公司的調整後總資產報酬率與Tobin's Q提高，且程度比其他電子股公司來得大。
3. 綜合前述結論，當消費券政策應用於針對紡織業、貿易百貨業、觀光產業及電子通路業的振興時，可獲得正向的政策效果，而此點也可以作為投資標的選擇的參考。
To revitalize the economy in Taiwan, the government issued consumer vouchers in 2009. This study examines the impact of the implementation of consumer vouchers on the performance of specific industries, including traditional industries—the textile industry, trading department stores, and tourism industries—and the electronic access industry. Stock’s buy-and-hold return, Tobin's Q, return on total assets are used as performance indicators to understand the impact of the implementation of consumer vouchers on these industries. The analyses include performance comparing around 2009 (pre-policy performance using the average of 2006 and 2007) and between sample industries and control group industries. The industrial performance improvement situation is conducive to the government's future reference for policies to revitalize economy.
In this study, the univariate difference comparison and the multiple regression model are used to analyze the change in performance for sample industries around consumer vouchers implementation. The following conclusions are obtained:
1. Based on the industry-adjusted Tobin's Q, three sample traditional industries’ performance in 2009 is significantly higher than the average performance in 2006 and 2007, and is significantly higher than that of other control groups in 2009.
2. Both the adjusted return of total assets and Tobin's Q for electronic channel companies increase post policy, and the change in degree is higher than that of other electronic companies.
3. Taking the foregoing conclusions together, when the consumer vouchers policy is applied to the revitalization of the textile industry, the trade department store industry, the tourism industry and the electronic access industry, a positive policy effect can be obtained, and this point can also serve as a reference for the selection of investment targets.
